England's team to win the 2010-2011 Ashes - revisited

On June 10 I chose :

1. Strauss; 2. Cook or Trott or even Bell; 3. Peterson; 4. Collingwood; 5. Morgan 6. Prior; 7. Bresnan; 8. Swann; 9. Broad; 10. Anderson; 11. Finn (or Onions)

Now I would choose:

1. Strauss; 2. Trott; 3. Cook; 4. Bell; 5. Morgan; 6. Prior; 7. Bresnan; 8. Swann; 9. Broad; 10. Tremlett; 11. Finn.

Peterson cannot be played until/ if he recovers form; I would drop Cook down the order since he is doing a bad job opening; and drop Collingwood forever - since I feel he has reached the end of his career (the number of dropped catches recently suggests that his reflexes/ hand eye coordination has gone - that is down to ageing and is irreversible). Anderson is injured and I don't think he will be recovered, also I don't think his pitched-up swing bowling will be effective in Australia. I have always rated Tremlett.

But I am *not* optimistic about winning the Ashes this time - we only have three solid batters (Strauss, Trott and Bell) so we cannot win a high scoring series; and we cannot force a low scoring series in Australia with just four bowlers, only one of whom is a genius and one (Finn) or two (and Tremlett) of whom are still Test rookies.

I suspect that we will play Anderson in the First Test despite him still being injured, and then we will be down to three effective bowlers, we will open with Cook, we will play out of form Peterson and finished Collingwood - and will be in effect four wickets down before we even begin. So we will lose the first test and uphill all the way...